VCSA - Vacasa stock sinks ~38% as Q4 guidance disappoints; co sees softness in bookings

Class A shares of Vacasa ( NASDAQ: VCSA ) slumped 38.3% to $2.21 in Thursday mid-day trading, after the vacation rental management company reported a fall in Q3 adj. EBITDA and guided Q4 revenue below consensus.

It is worth noting that VCSA stock had already been on a weak run, having posted losses in four of its last six sessions . The stock shed more than 8% the previous day ahead of the earnings announcement.

VCSA after hours on Wednesday posted Q3 GAAP EPS of $0.04 which missed estimates by 2 cents . Revenue rose nearly 25% Y/Y to $412.18M and beat expectations by $21.01M .

Key metrics such as gross booking value, gross booking value per night sold and nights sold increased Y/Y.

However, the company's adj. EBITDA came in at $46M, below its guidance range of $55M to $60M.

"We experienced higher than expected local market and customer support costs during the third quarter. You see this in our cost of revenue and operation and support expenses causing third quarter Adjusted EBITDA to come in below our guidance," VCSA CEO Rob Greyber and CFO Jamie Cohen said in a shareholder letter .

Investors were disappointed with the company's guidance.

VCSA guided Q4 revenue of $195M-$215M, well below the consensus revenue estimate of $222.14M. The company also said it expects a Q4 adj. EBITDA loss of $65M-$75M.

"We are experiencing some softness and variability in guest bookings that began after the strong summer season. The weakness was noticeable in September and has become more pronounced in the fourth quarter," said Greyber and Cohen.

The comment around softness in bookings mirrored that of VCSA's much larger peer ABNB, which also indicated that bookings would slow from pandemic levels .

Vacasa ( VCSA ) warned that average gross booking value per home could decline Y/Y in 2023 from "recent record levels".

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