VCLT - VCLT ETF: A Systematic Risk Assessment

2023-12-06 20:06:32 ET

Summary

• Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond Index Fund ETF Shares is at a crossroads due to the lack of clarity regarding the interim relationship between the yield curve and credit spreads.
• Our analysis suggests the curve's level will drop in 2024 while credit and term spreads may rise. However, we do not believe that credit and term premiums will dominate proceedings.
• Our risk premium outlook is somewhat neutral. However, bottom-up factors such as U.S. interest coverage ratios suggest that VCLT ETF is set to receive fundamental support.
• Although cyclical, VCLT ETF's dividend profile is alluring.
• We upgrade the asset to neutral from a previous sell rating.

The U.S. Corporate bond market makes for an exciting discussion in the current interest rate environment, given the volatility embedded in implied interest rates and risk premiums. Moreover, real economic factors are shifting, meaning opportunities such as duration management may come into play soon.

In light of the radically changing corporate bond market environment, we decided to dial in on the Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond Index Fund ETF Shares (NASDA: VCLT ) . VCLT has enjoyed a scintillating time of late, skyrocketing by more than 8% (at the time of writing this article) month-on-month. Although its recovery is somewhat warranted, VCLT possesses a few overlooked risks to take notice of. As such, today's article balances the pros and cons to formulate a judgment call.

We covered the ETF earlier this year and decided that the bond market environment's radical shift ever since warrants an update. Let's traverse in the analysis.

An Overview of VCLT ETF

As its name says, the Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond Index Fund ETF Shares invests in long-term bonds. However, let's delve into its mandate and portfolio composition to garner a better understanding of the vehicle's key functions.

VCLT is benchmarked to the Bloomberg U.S. 10+ Year Corporate Bond Index with some freedom to implement tracking errors. Furthermore, the fund's effective maturity of 22.6 years suggests it is very long-dated, especially considering that effective maturity accounts for early expirations via exercised options.

I plotted the fund's maturity structure below. Note that its duration composition is subject to change as time passes. Nevertheless, its current exposure shows that the fund generally avoids maturities below ten years and implements a laddered allocation thereafter.

Most of VCLT's asset mix is A and BBB-rated, meaning credit risk comes into play. What do I mean by credit risk? I'm referring to incremental changes in the probability of default and losses given default. Moreover, liquidity risk plays a key role, as many of VCLT ETF's holdings are positioned at market values above $10 million , which is a substantial amount to offload at once.

A final consideration about the fund is its hefty exposure to cyclical sectors. For example, nearly 70% of VCLT ETF's portfolio comprises industrial issuers, while more than 15% includes financial services companies. The fund's benchmark may reconstitute or rebalance as time passes; however, the fact remains that its current portfolio is highly exposed to cyclical risks, contemporaneously amplifying its sensitivity to credit risk.

What's In Store?

Top-Down Factors

Let's discuss the yield curve to start this section.

Firstly, the yield curve's month-over-month decline is no surprise, as continuous disinflation paired with softening consumer sentiment was always going to lead to a lower curve. We believe the curve will level down even further in 2024, providing latitude for treasury securities to surge.

However, there are a few additional matters to consider when it comes to corporate bonds. Firstly, a lower yield curve might imply that a recession is about to occur, which is supported by the fact that the slope of the curve continues to decline. Real economic factors also play into the equation. As mentioned before, consumer sentiment is waning , and unemployment numbers are rising.

We believe we may be in for a surprise if real economic softening and implied interest rate reductions enhance. Our outlook is based on two factors. Firstly, a contractionary economic environment could enhance credit spreads, adding downward pressure on corporate bond prices. Secondly, once a contraction is reached, we could see a steepening in the yield curve, which will likely spike the term premium and lower long-dated corporate bond prices.

Despite all of the potential risks, we believe that risk premiums on long-dated corporate bonds deserve a "neutral" rating until further data emerges. The level of the curve is in an outlying position and could revert to its mean in due course. If such an event occurs, we could see the level itself fend off other premiums, such as credit risk and term, especially considering that VCLT ETF holds high-quality corporate bonds that are not overly vulnerable to rating downgrades.

Bottom-Up Variables

Let's look at VCLT ETF from a bottom-up vantage point.

Firstly, take notice of the interest coverage ratios in the United States. The industrial sector, which is VCTL's largest sectorial bet, has experienced a recovery in this past quarter after a near year-on-year decline. In our view, corporate profits might slow as we read into a softer economic environment; however, a simultaneous interest rate pivot could outweigh such a headwind, leading to sustained interest coverage improvements.

Furthermore, the financial sector (VCLT ETF's second-largest exposure) might experience relief from lower interest rates due to a more favorable repo market. I'm aware that many believe higher interest rates lead to increased bank profitability. However, this is not necessarily the case when short-term rates rise exponentially while longer-term rates decay. As such, we think banks and other financial entities will benefit from cheaper short-term funding rates in 2024 (if an interest rate pivot occurs), lending them higher corporate bond repayment capabilities.

Potential Shareholder Compensation

The VCLT ETF's market price is at a premium of seven cents to its indicated net asset value. However, such a discrepancy is nearly negligible. Therefore, arbitrage should play little role here. In our view, valuation will be determined by the realized pathway of VCLT's key risk premiums, which we discussed earlier, and as you know by now, our analysis suggests a stalemate will occur.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond Index Fund ETF Shares' dividend prospects are promising. Its trailing yield of 4.89% might recede a tad if interest rates settle lower next year (providing credit spreads don't overlay the scenario). However, VCLT's lowest trailing yield in the last ten years is 2.98% , suggesting its baseline is solid, providing income-seeking investors with a sense of assurance.

Final Word

We hereby upgrade our outlook on the Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond Index Fund ETF Shares to neutral. In our opinion, credit and term premiums may obstruct benefits derived from a lower yield curve. However, we think a significant drop in the level of the curve paired with recovering sector interest coverage ratios and a lucrative dividend profile places VCLT ETF above sell rating territory.

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