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home / news releases / SKY - Voss Capital - ECN Capital: Still A Clear Event Path From Here


SKY - Voss Capital - ECN Capital: Still A Clear Event Path From Here

2023-11-08 07:55:00 ET

Summary

  • ECN Capital has announced a strategic investment from Skyline Champion, creating a captive finance joint venture and giving Skyline a 20% ownership stake.
  • The stock has become extremely out of favor, trading 40% lower than the price of the Skyline deal.
  • The partnership with Skyline has the potential to significantly drive earnings growth as it pairs financing options with the homes they manufacture and sell.

The following segment was excerpted from this fund letter.


ECN Capital ( OTCPK:ECNCF )

ECN has been disappointing and frustrating lately, so we felt it warranted an update. The company recently announced a major strategic investment from Skyline Champion ( SKY ), the second largest manufactured housing player in North America, whereby the two companies have created a captive finance joint venture in addition to Skyline purchasing a 20% effective ownership stake in ECN.

After several quarters in a row of lowering earnings guidance combined with confusion around the deal structure and dynamics going forward and, from what we can gather, aggressive price-insensitive tax-loss selling by Canadian mutual funds, the stock has become extremely out of favor and is 40% lower than the price of the Skyline deal. Although the fledging JV has limited visibility at the moment, we think the partnership has the potential to significantly drive earnings growth as Skyline pairs an inhouse financing option with the homes they manufacture and sell.

The market is clearly less optimistic. At the same time, Texas manufactured housing retail unit sales have quietly flipped back to positive year-over-year growth in August (+6%), a promising sign for continued Triad loan origination growth, but there is still fear over rates and undoubtedly weak end markets across RV and Marine.

If we back out ECN's purchase price of Source 1 & IFG, their RV and Marine origination platforms, and our estimate of their earnings contribution, we believe the core business of Triad is being valued at ~3.5x forward earnings - an extremely distressed level valuation for a business that has been a steady compounder and market share taker, is asset-light, and achieves >50% EBITDA margins.

We can still envision a clear event path from here, where they sell the RV and Marine business once the end markets at least stabilize, rebrand the company to Triad and relist to the US from Canada, and then eventually sell out entirely to Skyline or a major funding partner for a price well above the previous deal price ($3.04/share) within the next 2-3 years.


Disclosures and Notices:

Beginning January 1, 2020, all investment activity is conducted by the Voss Value Master Fund, LP (the “Master Fund”), which has two feeder funds, and therefore performance figures from January 1, 2020 onward are calculated based on the Master Fund. All limited partners invest in the Fund through one or more of the following feeder funds: Voss Value Offshore Fund, Ltd. (the “Offshore Fund”) and Voss Value Fund, LP (the “Predecessor Fund”), each a “Feeder Fund”. Performance figures for the Predecessor Fund are contributable to Travis Cocke as sole portfolio manager. Mr. Cocke maintains the same the position with the Fund and the Fund will employ a similar strategy as the Predecessor Fund. Actual returns are specific to each investor investing through a Feeder Fund. Each Feeder Fund was established at different times and has varying subsets of investors who may have had different fee structures than those currently being offered. As a result of differing fee structures, differing tax impact on onshore and offshore investors, the timing of subscriptions and redemptions, and other factors, the actual performance experienced by an investor may differ materially from the performance reported above. Portfolio statistics shown are inclusive of the Predecessor Fund and the Offshore Fund. Net results are presented after deduction of all operational expenses (including brokerage commissions), 1% per annum management fee, and 20% performance allocation. Prior to Q1 2023, 2022, and 2023 net results were presented at the Fund/feeder level but were subsequently updated to match the method of presentation used for the Fund’s 2022 Audited Financial Statements. A full chart is available upon request.

This letter is provided by Voss Capital, LLC (“Voss”, “the Firm”, “the Voss Team”, and “our team”) for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or a solicitation to buy, hold, or sell an interest in the Voss Value Fund, LP (the “Fund”) or any other security. An investment in the Fund is speculative and involves substantial risks. Additional information regarding the Fund, including fees, expenses and risks of investment, is contained in the offering memorandum and related documents, and should be carefully reviewed. An offer or solicitation of an investment in the Fund will only be made pursuant to an offering memorandum. This communication is confidential and may not be reproduced or distributed without prior written permission from Voss. This confidential report is only intended for the recipient and may not be redistributed without the prior written consent of Voss. The information contained herein reflects the opinions and projections of Voss as of the date of publication, which are subject to change without notice at any time subsequent to the date of issue. All information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be deemed as investment advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any specific security. Data included in this letter comes from company filings and presentations, analyst reports and Voss’ estimates. While the information presented herein is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any data presented. Certain information contained in this letter constitutes “forward-looking statements” which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may,” will,” “should,” “expect,” “attempt,” “anticipate,” “project,” “estimate, or “seek” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results in the actual performance of the Fund may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. There can be no guarantee that the Fund will achieve its investment objectives and Voss does not represent that any opinion or projection will be realized. The securities contained within the benchmark indices highlighted herein do not necessarily correspond to investments and exposures that will be held by the Fund and are therefore of limited use in predicting future performance of the fund. Indexes are unmanaged and have no fees or expenses. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. The Fund consists of securities which vary significantly from those in the benchmark indexes listed below. Accordingly, comparing results shown to those of such indexes may be of limited use. The S&P 500 Total Return Index is a market cap weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the overall U.S. equity market. The Russell 2000 index is an index measuring the performance approximately 2,000 small-cap companies in the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 2000 serves as a benchmark for small-cap stocks in the United States. The Russell 2000 Growth Index measures the performance of those Russell 2000 companies with higher price/book ratios and higher predicted and historical growth rates. The Russell 2000 Value Index measures the performance of the small-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 2000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower expected and historical growth values. HFRX Equity Hedge Index consist of Equity Hedge strategies which maintain positions both long and short in primarily equity and equity derivative securities. A wide variety of investment processes can be employed to arrive at an investment decision, including both quantitative and fundamental techniques; strategies can be broadly diversified or narrowly focused on specific sectors and can range broadly in terms of levels of net exposure, leverage employed, holding period, concentrations of market capitalizations and valuation ranges of typical portfolios. The strategy utilized by Voss has a high tolerance for uncertainty. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy will be profitable. Asset allocation may be used in an effort to manage risk and enhance returns. It does not, however, guarantee a profit or protect against loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

For further details see:

Voss Capital - ECN Capital: Still A Clear Event Path From Here
Stock Information

Company Name: Skyline Champion Corporation
Stock Symbol: SKY
Market: NYSE
Website: skylinechampion.com

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