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Although I am working with obviously incomplete and biased information, I view the possibility of the cessation of hostilities within a few weeks to be unlikely.
The sanctions, war disruptions, and a Western private sector that is cutting ties to Russia means that we are facing an extremely rapid unravelling of commercial and financial flows between the West and Russia and Ukraine.
Although sanctions may be in place between the NATO-aligned industrial democracies and Russia, commodity flows out of Russia are likely to resume.