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Editor's note: This article was originally published on August 13, 2020, by Menzie Chinn here.
The trajectory of the recovery according to the consensus is little changed from the Wall Street Journal's (subscription required) July survey - despite the derailment of the Phase 4 recovery package. However, more analysts perceive a "W" than before.
Here are different vintages of consensus views:
Figure 1: GDP as reported in 2020Q1 advance release (black), WSJ April survey (tan), May survey (green), June survey (red), July survey (pink), August survey (purple), all in billions Ch.2012$, SAAR, all