DAM - We Survived The Friday The 13th Volatility

• Among the most challenging aspects of late has been to try and hold a positive medium-term (one- to three-year) view in the midst of very aggressive, downward-facing, fast-moving, cross-asset selloffs.
• While inflation does seem to have peaked along with expectations and breakevens, the data last week was opaque and far from satisfying, resulting in further equity weakness, even while bonds rallied. We are in the handoff from goods demand-related inflation to service demand inflation.
• A Fed that avoids putting the economy into recession also opens the door for the medium-term, above-trend, high-nominal growth path scenario we have laid out, fueled by a capex boom driven by Covid, Climate, and Conflict, and underpinned by rising productivity.

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