TWTR - Wedbush says a lot riding on testimony of Agrawal Musk as October 17 court data looms

On October 17, the court battle between Twitter ( NYSE: TWTR ) and Elon Musk will start and the fate of the social network is decided in the Delaware Court of Chancery. And investment firm Wedbush Securities points out that the testimonies from Twitter ( TWTR ) Chief Executive Parag Agrawal and Musk will be crucial moments during the five-day trial.

"There is a lot riding on the testimony on each individual combined with the Zatko wild card which remains another key variable in this upcoming trial," analyst Dan Ives wrote in a note to clients.

On Monday, the depositions of Agrawal and Musk were both postponed .

Ives continued to pound the table on the belief that Twitter ( TWTR ) shares will trade on deal odds as the court battle gets set for next month.

Among the four scenarios Ives has previously called out, the two with the highest likelihood of happening are:

• "Specific performance" is upheld by the court and Musk needs to buy Twitter for $44B.
• Or Musk needs to settle, with significant damages in the range of $5B to $10B going into Twitter's ( TWTR ) coffers.

"We continue to believe a likely scenario is Musk still buying Twitter at a lower renegotiated price in the $50 range and taking a brutal Game of Thrones battle in Delaware for both sides off the table before it kicks off," Ives wrote.

The analyst added that once the trial starts, it's believed that Musk is "a weak legal position" to defend his position in abandoning the deal.

Last week, Wells Fargo became more convinced of a successful Twitter-Musk sale after comments from an expert .

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