AFMC - Weekly Commentary: Election On The Brink
2024-07-20 04:20:41 ET
Summary
- Americans fear their country is spiraling out of control following an assassination attempt on Donald Trump, with worries growing that the Nov. 5 election could spark more political violence, a Reuters poll found.
- Markets are said to hate uncertainty, though highly speculative global markets have for a while confidently climbed the proverbial wall of worry.
- This week likely marked the onset of a period of de-risking/deleveraging.
"At the Trump Rally, It Was Evening Sun, Songs and Blue Sky. Then Came Bullets, Screams and Blood." "Biden, Trump Call for Unity in Aftermath of Trump Assassination Attempt." "Shooting at Trump Rally Comes at Volatile Time in American History." "'I'm Tired. I'm Done.' Nation Faces Exhaustion and Division After Trump Assassination Attempt." "An Assassination Attempt That Seems Likely to Tear America Further Apart." "VP Frontrunner JD Vance Points Finger at Biden for Apparent Assassination Attempt at Trump Rally." "Gun and Ammo Shares Jump After Trump Assassination Attempt." "Europe Fears Trump Shooting Could Deepen America's Political Crisis."
"Biden is Isolated at Home as Obama, Pelosi and Other Democrats Push for Him to Reconsider 2024 Race." "Biden Campaign Defiant as More Democrats Call on Him to Step Aside." "Trump Basks in Total Control of GOP as Biden Campaign Hits Low."
Friday Drudge headlines: "Biggest Outage in History." "Microsoft Crash Wreaks Havoc." "World Plunged Into Dark Ages."
July 16 - Reuters (Jason Lange): "Americans fear their country is spiraling out of control following an assassination attempt on Donald Trump, with worries growing that the Nov. 5 election could spark more political violence, a Reuters/Ipsos poll… found. The two-day poll found Republican presidential candidate Trump opening a marginal lead among registered voters - 43% to 41% - over Democratic U.S. President Joe Biden… But 80% of voters - including similar shares of Democrats and Republicans - said they agreed with a statement that 'the country is spiraling out of the control.'"
An absolutely dreadful week. Our nation is so deeply and bitterly divided. From the public mood, one would think the economy must be in depression. Yet growth continues, with the unemployment rate near 4%. The S&P 500 was at record highs in Monday trading. What's most worrying is that things will surely get worse.
Election on the Brink. As of Friday evening, betting odds have Trump the heavy favorite to win the presidency, with Vice President Harris the leading Democrat.
Markets are said to hate uncertainty, though highly speculative global markets have for a while confidently climbed the proverbial wall of worry. Still, there have been inklings of vulnerability to political risk (i.e., Mexico and France) soon to be masked by melt-up speculative dynamics. Speculative markets are notoriously short-term focused. Suddenly, however, Tuesday, November 5th, feels so much closer....
Weekly Commentary: Election On The Brink