QQQ - Weekly Indicators: Industrial Commodity Prices Spike To 12-Month High

2024-04-20 08:00:00 ET

Summary

• Long leading indicators remain unchanged, with interest rates and credit spreads improving but yield curve measures and real estate loans remaining negative.
• Short leading indicators show some improvement, particularly in commodities and the US dollar, but temporary staffing remains negative.
• Coincident indicators suggest that the consumer and taxpayer are holding up well, with inflation and real consumer spending remaining stable.

Purpose

I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to "mark your beliefs to market." In general, I go in order of long leading indicators, then short leading indicators, then coincident indicators.

A Note on Methodology

Data is presented in a "just the facts, ma'am" format with a minimum of commentary so that bias is minimized.

Where relevant, I include 12-month highs and lows in the data in parentheses to the right. All data taken from St. Louis FRED unless otherwise linked....

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