EFIV - Weekly Indicators: Never Simply Project A Current Trend Forward

• High frequency indicators can give us a nearly up-to-the-moment view of the economy.
• The metrics are divided into long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators.
• The short term forecast is positive, and the coincident nowcast weakly so as well.
• There was a bullish un-inversion in the yield curve this week, demonstrating why one should never simply project that a particular metric will continue in accord with its recent trend.
• As a result, the long leading forecast resumes being weakly positive this week.

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