QQQ - Weekly Indicators: No Negative Components Of Coincident Metrics

2024-07-20 08:00:00 ET

Summary

• Weekly indicators provide a good “nowcast” of the economy and can signal changes before monthly or quarterly data is available.
• Long leading indicators show improvements in interest rates and credit spreads, while short leading indicators remain slightly positive.
• But this week, for the first time in a long time, there was not a single negative component among the coincident indicators.

Purpose

I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good “nowcast” of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to “mark your beliefs to market.” In general, I go in order of long leading indicators, then short leading indicators, then coincident indicators.

A Note on Methodology

Data is presented in a “just the facts, ma'am” format with a minimum of commentary so that bias is minimized.

Where relevant, I include 12-month highs and lows in the data in parentheses to the right. All data taken from St. Louis FRED unless otherwise linked....

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