QQQ - Weekly Indicators: Sharp Bifurcation In Short Leading And Coincident Timeframes
2024-03-09 08:00:00 ET
Summary
- Long leading indicators show improvement, with bond yields and mortgage applications turning neutral.
- Short leading indicators are mixed, with positive trends in stock prices and real consumer spending, but negative trends in temporary staffing and manufacturing.
- Coincident indicators are also mixed, with positive consumer metrics and negative manufacturing metrics.
Purpose
I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to "mark your beliefs to market." In general, I go in order of long leading indicators, then short leading indicators, then coincident indicators.
A Note on Methodology
Data is presented in a "just the facts, ma'am" format with a minimum of commentary so that bias is minimized.
Where relevant, I include 12-month highs and lows in the data in parentheses to the right. All data taken from St. Louis FRED unless otherwise linked....
Weekly Indicators: Sharp Bifurcation In Short Leading And Coincident Timeframes