QQQ - Weekly Indicators: The Coincident Indicators Say 'Soft Landing' Is Here
2024-04-06 08:00:00 ET
Summary
- Long leading indicators show improvement, with bond yields and mortgage rates remaining neutral despite recent increases.
- Short leading indicators are showing mixed results, with commodities and the US dollar strengthening, but temporary staffing remaining negative.
- Coincident indicators suggest a "soft landing" scenario for the economy in 2024, supported by strong employment data.
Purpose
I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to "mark your beliefs to market." In general, I go in order of long leading indicators, then short leading indicators, then coincident indicators.
A Note on Methodology
Data is presented in a "just the facts, ma'am" format with a minimum of commentary so that bias is minimized.
Where relevant, I include 12-month highs and lows in the data in parentheses to the right. All data taken from St. Louis FRED unless otherwise linked....
Weekly Indicators: The Coincident Indicators Say 'Soft Landing' Is Here