QVMS - Weekly Unemployment Claims: Up 7K Worse Than Forecast

Summary

• The headline Unemployment Insurance data is seasonally adjusted.
• The 4-week moving average is a more useful number than the weekly data.
• Seasonally adjusted 225K new claims, up 7k from the previous week's revised figure, was worse than the Investing.com forecast of 220K.

By Jill Mislinski

Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor :

In the week ending November 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 225,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 217,000 to 218,000. The 4 week moving average was 218,750, a decrease of 250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 218,750 to 219,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.0 percent for the week ending October 29, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured employment during the week ending October 29 was 1,493,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up 2,000 from 1,485,000 to 1,487,000. The 4 week moving average was 1,450,250, an increase of 32,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 1,417,500 to 1,418,000.

This morning's seasonally adjusted 225K new claims, up 7k from the previous week's revised figure, was worse than the Investing.com forecast of 220K.

Here is a close look at the data over the decade (with a callout for the past year), which gives a clearer sense of the overall trend.

As we can see, there's a good bit of volatility in this indicator, which is why the 4-week moving average (the highlighted number) is a more useful number than the weekly data. Here is the complete data series.

Here's a copy of the above chart, but zoomed in, so the COVID spike isn't as prominent.

The headline Unemployment Insurance data is seasonally adjusted. What does the non-seasonally adjusted data look like? See the chart below, which clearly shows the extreme volatility of the non-adjusted data (the red dots). The 4-week MA gives an indication of the recurring pattern of seasonal change (note, for example, those regular January spikes).

Because of the extreme volatility of the non-adjusted weekly data, we can add a 52-week moving average to give a better sense of the secular trends. The chart below also has a linear regression through the data.

Here's a look at a sample of year's claims going back to 2009.

For an analysis of unemployment claims as a percent of the labor force, see this regularly updated piece The Civilian Labor Force, Unemployment Claims and the Business Cycle . Here is a snapshot from that analysis.

Original Post

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