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We are initiating on Weibo (WB) with a BEARISH view and a $39 target price that is based on 13x 2020E EPS, implying an 18% downside from the current level.
Our thesis on WB is that the platform is facing a combination of structural and competitive challenges on both the consumer time spend that will continue to place downward pressure on its operating profile and engagement metrics. These trends will ultimately result in revenue stagnation, the limited upside on per-user monetization and, worst of all, a gradual phaseout of the microblog platform in