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Gold prices moved to $1700/ozt a few weeks ago as the market started to price in rate cuts. However, since then, prices have fallen back to below $1500/ozt despite broad market turmoil. We believe this price fall is mainly the result of sharply higher real-interest rate expectations as we are seeing a temporary surge in dollar demand. We think this could change on a dime. Massive renewed central bank intervention will push gold prices sharply higher to over $2600 over the medium term.
Many investors are scratching their heads. The Coronavirus outbreak is shocking global