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"The writing is on the wall." "What is past is prologue." "History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes." Yada, yada, yada...
So, to the title of this post: what is the bond market telling you? Well, let's look at the current structure of the yield curve:
Fed Funds overnight rate? 2.40%
3-month Treasury bill? 2.35%
2-year Treasury note? 2.14%
10-year Treasury note? 2.28%
Thus, the "yield curve" in the U.S. is now inverted from the short end to the long end, as overnight rates exceed ten-year rates. How and why has this happened?