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SHYL - When To Expect Stocks To Fall If The Yield Curve Is Still Relevant
Xtrackers Short Duration High Yield Bond
An inverted yield curve is one of the most reliable leading indicators of an ensuing recession.
That is, when longer maturity Treasury yields such as that of 10, 20, or 30-year bonds are lower than the yields of short-term Treasury yields, this signifies the market betting that the Federal Reserve will soon lower the overnight rate. A lower overnight rate will ripple out to lower short-term rates.
It's up for debate whether an inverted yield curve still works well as a leading indicator of economic weakness ahead. Those who say it doesn't have their reasons