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The latest leading economic data indicate that the recovery is intact and that the strong GDP growth reported for the first quarter of this year will continue.
We were looking for the US economy to recover rapidly during the second half of 2020, level off during the first half of 2021 and return to recession territory by the first half of 2022.
The probability of the US economy re-entering recession territory as soon as the first half of 2022 is now extremely low.