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CTFN is out with a story that Allergan (AGN) circulated employee communication indicating an early February close of its AbbVie (ABBV) deal. This is not incongruent with existing information but if accepted as a fact decreases the time-to-close the likely timeline to a close from 20-40 days to more like 5-10 days. This also leaves very little time for merger failure. I've increased the closing probability to 99%.
Because the spread is still 2.05% that means the annualized return would be off the charts or 111.64% and potentially upwards of that. Even if