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HAIL - Why Those Transportation Recession Analyses You've Been Reading Have Been Too Bearish
SPDR S&P Kensho Smart Mobility
Introduction
About the middle of every month for the past half year, there has been a spate of “transportation shows we’re in recession!” articles. This month has been no exception.
Most of those analyses rely on only one or two metrics. They’re probably wrong, or at least too bearish. Here’s why: usually, the big modes of traffic move in tandem. But they didn’t in 2018.
The contradictory measures of Transportation Indexes
The bearish analyses you’ve been reading typically rely on one or both of two metrics: rail traffic and/or the Cass Freight Index.