DGT - Why We're Less Worried About A Recession Now That Growth Is Plunging
Originally published February 28, 2019
Starting about 18 months ago I assessed the risk of a recession before the next presidential election to be over 50% because we at Bridgewater calculated that a) the growth spurt would be temporary and fade and b) the Fed's policies in response to the growth spurt would drive asset prices and then the economy down.
Because the markets weakened and Fed officials now see that the economy and inflation are weak there has been a shift to an easier stance by the Fed. Similarly, because of weaker markets, economies,