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The last sustained stretch of market-based inflation expectations rising above the Fed's 2% target ran from January to November 2018. By July of that year, US unemployment had reached 3.8%, well below the natural non-accelerating rate of unemployment (NARU), typically pegged at 5% to 6%. The national unemployment rate would fall further by November's close to 3.7%. Meanwhile, inflation expectations had peaked in the first week of October of that year at 2.16%, heading down to 1.65% as the S&P 500 peaked in the closing days of February. With the market crash and resulting