OILX - Will Crude Hold Gains After Saudi Russia Voluntary Cuts?

2023-07-04 03:10:00 ET

Summary

• The big news this morning came from OPEC+, with Saudi deciding to extend its voluntary cuts of one million barrels per day through August and Russia saying it will cut its exports by 500K bpd in August.
• The news sent oil prices spiking higher this morning, with Brent jumping around $1.80 (or 2.45%) in initial reaction from the day’s low, before easing off their highs.
• The critical question remains whether oil prices will buck the recent trend of being unable to maintain their OPEC-related gains.

By Fawad Razaqzada

The big news on Monday came from OPEC+, with Saudi deciding to extend its voluntary cuts of one million barrels per day through August and Russia saying it will cut its exports by 500K bpd in August.

The news sent oil prices spiking higher this morning, with Brent jumping around $1.80 (or 2.45%) in initial reaction from the day’s low, before easing off their highs.

Will It Be Different This Time?

The critical question remains whether oil prices will buck the recent trend of being unable to maintain their OPEC-related gains. Every time prices have jumped on the back of supply cuts from the group, traders have sold into that move amid skepticism over the efficacy of these cuts when Russia has consistently produced and sold more oil than agreed. Will it be different this time?

Well, judging by the somewhat muted response, traders want to see evidence that Russia will be complying.

What Else Is Holding Back Crude Oil?

There are also ongoing concerns about demand, as evidenced, for example, by Monday’s release of the latest or revised PMIs, showing falling activity across the global manufacturing sector.

On Monday's US economic calendar , the key focus will be on ISM manufacturing PMI. We will have more US data later in the week to look forward to, which could influence oil prices should we see any big surprises or misses.

Fears about the strength of the global economy intensified after major central banks tightened monetary policy further in recent weeks, with some pushing interest rates higher than had been expected just a month or so ago.

It is also worth watching the US dollar index , which has bounced back after falling on Friday. The greenback is supported by a hawkish Fed stance, with Powell reiterating last week that interest rates still needed to rise potentially by a further 50 basis points by the end of the year.

But the core PCE price index eased to 4.6%, which is still well above the Fed’s 2% target. Crude oil bulls clearly will want to see a weaker dollar, since oil is priced in the US currency.

Crude Oil Outlook Is Positive

But the efforts of the OPEC+ will not go in vain. Supply should continue to tighten as we go deeper in the second half of this year. I think it is a matter of time before we see oil prices start to trend decisively higher. That is assuming members of the group will comply with their cuts and there are no major demand shocks. So, our crude oil outlook remains bullish.

Crude Oil Outlook: Technical Analysis

Brent oil broke - on a daily closing basis - above the key $75 level on Friday, before extending higher on the back of Saudi/Russia news on Monday. A positive close would appease the bulls - especially if we also see a break above the $77.00 resistance level, where Brent oil has consistently struggled. A decisive move above $77.00 could pave the way for follow-up technical buying toward $80.00 or even higher.

It is worth noting that oil prices have been fairly stable over the past couple of months or so, with Brent finding consistent support around the $72.00 level and resistance circa $77.00.

With the market expected to tighten further in the months ahead, a bullish breakout from this $5 range would give us a projected measured target of $83.00 ($77.00 + $5). In other words, a rally back to the 200-day moving average.

In short, the crude oil outlook remains positive after much of the selling pressure was absorbed successfully in June, and in light of the ongoing OPEC+ intervention.

Originally published on MoneyShow.com

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editor

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