TYD - Will Treasury Term Premiums Signal Higher Inflation Risk?

• There's no shortage of indicators to monitor for deciding if the expected runup in inflation is a temporary affair or regime shift that signals a longer-term rise in pricing pressure.
• The term premium (TP) is one of the three main components for decomposing Treasury yields. The other two - expectations about inflation and the path of short-term rates - tend to draw the most attention.
• TP, unfortunately, can't be observed directly and so a model is required.

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