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Financial markets are reacting as expected to the heightened uncertainty. In the first days of the invasion, global equities plunged while safe-haven assets rallied.
In short, while we have anticipated a broader, cyclical turn against the dollar could be underway, this shift in favor of other currencies—including emerging markets—could be pushed further out.
Ukraine’s demonstrated resistance could make annexation difficult, while crippling economic sanctions would impair Russia’s ability to successfully maintain control over Ukraine.