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Let's start with the good news: while many worry indicators are rising today, along with the decline in stocks, the US dollar is weaker. It will be hard to declare if a risk-off environment has fully gripped the markets without a meaningful surge in the safe-haven dollar (see figure 4), which is well off its recent highs. Now to the analysis:
Last week we noted that while certain worry indicators were rising, others were yet to send meaningful signals. One relationship that we examined was the relationship between TIPS break-evens and gold. When TIPS break-evens