FLGV - Yield Curve Inversions Signaling Caution Rather Than Recession

• Late in any economic cycle, investors will turn their attention to the U.S. Treasury yield curve, a bond-market gauge viewed as a harbinger of the economic outlook.
• The curve has a track record for foreshadowing recessions when it inverts, meaning when shorter-dated yields move above longer-dated ones.
• A yield curve inversion should never be dismissed just because the backdrop has changed. That said, the curve’s signal may be less clear than in the past.

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