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There has been quite a lot of movement in yields since last month, so I thought it would be useful to look at an update.
During the last half of June and July, the long end of the curve came down while the short end moved up a little bit. I wish we had an NGDP futures market to check these intuitions against, but I think the best interpretation is that in June the Fed had reversed track a bit and signaled more dovish policy going forward, but then some compromises in that posture began