BIBL News and Press, Inspire 100 From 01/11/21

The Democrats gained a slim majority in the Senate, paving the way for greater public spending and reinforcing our macro outlook. A more infectious virus strain could delay the activity restart but we see the cumulative economic loss as a fraction of that seen after the 2008 crisis. ...

At the end of 2019, before anyone outside Wuhan had heard of the new coronavirus, the leading indicators we track pointed to a 60% probability of the US economy entering recession during the first half of 2020 and an 80% probability of the US economy entering recession before the end of 2...

At the start of the new year, there is an almost irresistible urge to make predictions. Everybody wants to know what will happen next. Ending the pandemic is key to getting the consumer economy back to the pre-2020 normal. We feel confident that this will happen by the end of 2021. ...

It was a close call, but Santa finally delivered with a strong rally this past week, pushing the markets to all-time highs. Markets quickly dismissed concerns of higher taxes by justifying it with more stimulus and more significant deficits. In other words, "buy everything in sigh...

The S&P 500 Value Investor Index is a long-term fundamental measure of market pricing. When S&P 500 prices correct to the level of this index or below, there is a high correlation with corporate insider buying. The index is useful during significant market corrections as o...

One favorable aspect of the recent equity market performance is the broadening participation of asset classes other than the large-cap FANGMA stocks. Since September 2020, small-cap and mid-cap stocks have experienced a significant reversal in performance and are far outpacing the FAN...

The new Covid outbreak, social restrictions, business closures, and lockdowns render most of the upcoming data mostly irrelevant. Market measures of US inflation expectations have risen, and the Democratic Party securing the Senate (50/50 but the Vice President breaks ties) has booste...

ADP let the cat of the bag on Wednesday when the payroll processing provider announced it believed the level of private employment had declined in December 2020. Since it wasn't likely to have been wildly inaccurate, it set the stage for a renewed negative number in the main governmen...

U.S. nonfarm payrolls lost 140,000 jobs in December, the first monthly decline since the historic, shutdown-driven plunges in March and April. The latest decline brings the eight-month post-plunge recovery to 12.32 million and is far from offsetting the 22.16 million loss in March and...

The goods trade balance pre-pandemic was increasing, but from the pandemic onward, has trended sideways, with a downward move in latest months. Consumer goods accounted for a large component of the increase in imports, so may represent the shift in consumption patterns specific to the...