BIBL News and Press, Inspire 100 From 05/21/21

Jobless claims continue to trend lower as firms look to both hire and retain the staff they currently have. Virtually all business surveys suggest companies want to hire, but are struggling to do so. The lack of supply of workers is increasingly becoming a strain on the recovery story...

We continue to focus on four main items: the coronavirus, monetary policy, fiscal policy, and current economic data points both here and abroad to formulate our investment policy. We recommend using this weakness to add to your economically sensitive stocks while reducing holdings in ...

Government and Fed stimulus create volatility. But the business must navigate through it and replenish the shelves. Inventory management moves the markets. For further details see: The Inventory Cycle: Boring But Important Market Setter - Part 2

Last week’s inflation numbers apparently caught the Federal Reserve by surprise. Fortunately, the U.S. economy is booming. According to the Atlanta Fed, it is now growing at a 10.5% annual pace, despite last Friday’s flat retail sales report. Over 90% of the stocks i...

We see the recent inflation spike as temporary due to unique restart forces, but see inflation on the rise in the medium term. Both views keep us pro-risk. U.S. April inflation was much higher than expected. We have expected noisy inflation data over coming months amid unusual supply/...

New jobless claims declined 34,000 to 473,000. On an unadjusted basis, new jobless claims declined 26,286 to 487,436. The 4-week average of claims also declined by 28,250 to 534,000. At the peak of the pandemic lockdowns, new claims were running 6-7 million per week. Current claims re...

As the U.S. birth rate fell to a new low in 2020, it appears that COVID-19 and associated economic weakness/uncertainty has accelerated a preexisting trend of falling American fertility. If 2008-level fertility rates had persisted through 2020, 5.8 million more babies would have been ...

Global markets sell off. Long overdue or more to come? Will the threat of inflation continue to foil markets? Overvaluation vs. money looking for a home. Which force will win out? For further details see: Markets Sell Off On Inflation Fears: Overdue Pullback Or More Down...

JOLTS report for March confirmed that month’s stellar jobs report. Job openings made a new series high, while layoffs and discharges made a new series low. Hires, quits, and total separations all also moved in the right direction. Given the relatively subpar April employmen...

Our Consumer Price Index may show some inflation, but the Treasury markets certainly do not reflect it. We have had a casino mentality in the equity markets for some time now, but rolling the dice and spinning the wheel have consequences - and they are beginning to show up. The eq...