BILS News and Press, SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 3-12 Month T-Bill From 12/13/22

Summary Instead of rate expectations moving higher, the near-term rate expectations hardly changed, while the 2024 federal funds implied rate expectations dropped. The yield curve became much more inverted, with short-term rates exceeding long-term yields by a larger margin. Increas...

Summary Recession is foretold, in our view, as central banks crush demand to bring down inflation. We think markets are wrong to expect them to later come to the rescue. U.S. stocks fell and the Treasury yield curve inverted its most since the early 1980s. We see recent moves as reflect...

Summary The Fed’s mandate is stable prices and maximum employment. For now, employment, wages and inflation momentum are still too strong to warrant a Fed pivot. If Powell and the Fed fail to tame inflation, then their heads are on the chopping block. They know this and they will...

Summary Amid the crosscurrents, two themes have prevailed during the post-pandemic years, which lend some perspective to the macroeconomic roadmap ahead: namely, the bipolar swings in macro policy and the forces of economic normalization. After one of the worst years for fixed income as...

Summary Today, the yield curve is more inverted than at any time since the early 1980s, so many are saying that means the chances of a recession are pretty high. Yes, today the curve is very inverted, but real yields are not particularly high. Low spreads suggest the market is relat...

Summary At least one of two things should happen to warn that an official US recession is about to begin. One is a decline in the ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (NOI) to below 48 and the other is a reversal of the yield curve’s trend from flattening/inverting to steepening. ...

Summary The 3-month/10-year Treasury curve inverted last Thursday on better-than-expected CPI news. If the 10-year note can stay below 4% until the end of 2022, we could see the stock market rally extend into Christmas. Powell can announce a pause in rate hikes at the December...

Summary The average spread between the 10-year Treasury and the 30-year mortgage rate has averaged 1.7% since 1990 and now stands at 2.9%. Small and mid-cap stocks continue to look better technically than US large cap. The Russell 2000, S&P 600 and S&P 400 (midcap) index E...

Summary Powell pointed out that the yield curve is not inverted yet if you look at the 3 month/10-year Treasury spread. The 2-10 spread is more inverted than any of the most recent (Greenspan or Bernanke) inversions, but it has not gotten as bad as the Volcker inversions, which we...

Summary The trend for the dollar and the 10-year Treasury yield is still up but, as I said last week, both appear to be hitting a short-term peak. US stocks were down last week but non-US stocks had a great week. The selloff in the dollar Friday goosed non-dollar returns by nearly...