BILS News and Press, SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 3-12 Month T-Bill From 03/02/23

SPDR Bloomberg 3-12 Month T-Bill ETF ( BILS ) - $0.3431 . 30-Day SEC Yield of 4.47% as of Feb. 28. Payable Mar 07; for shareholders of record Mar 02; ex-div Mar 01. For further details see: SPDR Bloomberg 3-12 Month T-Bill ETF declares monthly distribution of $0.3431

Summary In all previous Fed tightening episodes since 1989, the yield curve has never been as inverted as it is today. History strongly suggests that at this juncture in the monetary policy and economic cycles, yield curves are nearing a point of normalization. Yield curve normaliza...

Summary The credit cycle lies at the heart of our financial system. Corporations and households rely on the availability of credit to facilitate economic growth and ensure financial stability. Unfortunately, the leading indicators suggest the cyclical outlook of the credit cycle is unfa...

Summary The degree of inversion has now either set a record or is at its most negative differential in over 40 years. Is a recession inevitable given the inverted nature of the UST yield curve? Looking at economists’ estimates for Q1 real GDP, the recession may have to wait. ...

Summary The hawkish repricing on the US curve has resulted in a further inversion, as swaps still price 2024 rate cuts. The mood is understandably nervous, but some indicators suggest optimism. There is undeniably some upside to rates across maturities today on an upside inflation s...

Summary The U.S. is now in the midst of producing record amounts of natural gas, which will help prices firm up. The milder winter kept prices low, but as the U.S. and Europe are hit by more Arctic air fronts in late winter, natural gas prices could start rising. As seasonal demand rise...

Summary Credit risk spreads remain tight. The problem with recency bias is that the immediate past is not likely to be an accurate guide for the characteristics of the next cycle. We do not expect that the Fed will start cutting rates any time soon. Originally published ...

Summary Over the past year, banks have reported tighter lending standards on commercial loans to small, large, and middle-market firms. Large corporate bankruptcies have spiked the most since the 2008 financial crisis. Stock valuations typically tumble during recessions as the unemp...

Summary The short-term interest rate on US Treasury bills is higher than the interest rate on medium-term US Treasury notes. There are no inversions of any consequence that we observed in the Alaska Muni Bond Bank series, and there is negligible inversion in the Alaska GO issues. Th...

Summary The question as to whether nominal spreads today are properly priced or not ultimately comes down to one thing, and that one thing is inflation. Year-on-year core inflation has been trending down since it hit a peak of 6.6 percent last September. Our expectation is that the ...