BILS News and Press, SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 3-12 Month T-Bill From 09/25/23

2023-09-25 20:21:00 ET Summary Bond yields, which have been stagnant since peaking last October, finally broke above the trading range they’ve been in for all that time. Interest rates will peak at some point. When they do, it may or may not coincide with the onset of reces...

2023-09-14 05:20:00 ET Summary A hike from the ECB today may have limited impact, as a total of 25bp of tightening is already fully priced before year-end. Raising rates today would probably be largely interpreted as pulling forward that final hike, but the appetite to price in mo...

2023-09-13 13:00:00 ET Summary Some analysts who favor one or two indicators to forecast US recessions have had a rough year. For now, the probability that a recession has started, or is about to start, remains low, based on another indicator featured in The US Business Cycle Risk...

2023-09-06 03:15:00 ET Summary We rationalise why US longer tenor rates are rising – basically, the curve is inverted and getting used to discounting structurally higher rates. If so, reversion to a normal curve must mean dis-inversion from the back end. When something ...

2023-09-01 11:00:14 ET More on SPDR® Bloomberg Barclays 3-12 Month T-Bill ETF SGOV: Safe Haven And Tactical Cash Holding 'No good options,' but Yellen doesn't rule out emergency measures to avoid U.S. default Is the debt ceiling constitutional and has the U.S. e...

2023-08-28 15:55:00 ET Summary The economic debate shifted gears with diminishing concerns about a recession, leading U.S. long-term Treasury yields to rise sharply. The net result was a less inverted U.S. yield curve, not because short-term interest rates fell, but because long-t...

2023-08-23 21:05:00 ET Summary A rising Yield Curve is what we are seeing today. The turn higher began after hitting what appears to be the low point,-1.89%, on May 4, 2023. Consensus opinion is that investing is all about calling the bottom in the S&P 500 or some other asset ...

2023-08-22 10:05:00 ET Summary Last week, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to levels not seen since 2008, and that had significant implications for stocks. I was encouraged by what we heard on earnings calls for major retailers last week, as they confirmed my positive views on c...

2023-08-19 02:30:00 ET Summary The Jackson Hole meetings come at a particularly poignant time this year, because there is a great deal going on in securities markets and the economy at large. It took more than a year, but it finally seems to have sunk into the collective brain of ...

2023-08-15 11:00:00 ET Summary The market is showing signs of weakness and lacks sustainable upside momentum. The recent sell-off has broken key moving averages, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment. The market's reaction to economic news, such as CPI data, suggest...