CCRV News and Press, ISHARES US ETF TR From 04/25/22

The invasion of Ukraine is an inflationary shock to an already inflationary system. The International Energy Agency has warned that the impact on oil supply will peak only from May onwards. Since the war broke out, core government bonds have suffered sustained price declines unsee...

When reviewing the current state of the global economy and investment markets, we recommend focusing on market signals and weeding out market noise. While decelerating from the pace of 2021, U.S. economic growth is expected to remain positive in 2022, pending further unexpected inflat...

With consumer price inflation now approaching double-digit territory, the bond market is beginning to catch on. The dollar is benefiting mainly from its safe-haven appeal. Inflation expectations have indeed risen and now stand at a historical high (recall that TIPS only came into ...

The Fed has decided to go from super-easy money to quickly tightening monetary policy, which is causing a spike in Treasury yields that looks dangerous to me. Treasury yields have nearly doubled since the Omicron panic in late November, touching 2.73% on Friday. They are flirting with...

The broader equity categories turned in negative results in Q1. U.S. large-cap stocks, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, held up the best at a decline of 4.6%. Bonds performed worse than many of the equity categories, despite typically being viewed as a safe haven investment. In t...

Does the yield curve inversion cause a recession or does it just provide a signal? Is the inversion only about expected future monetary policy? Do other factors also influence the shape of the curve, and if so, can we disentangle the various factors? There is a lot that we don’...

We see the West’s drive for energy security slowing growth, increasing inflation and stoking demand for non-Russian fossil fuels to alleviate consumer pain. Data last week showed U.S. inflation at 40-year highs and a robust labor market. We expect the Fed to deliver on this yea...

We see specific themes in commodities that could benefit from the transition to a low carbon economy. On average, since 1997, commodities have historically outperformed the S&P 500 in the first 12 months after the beginning of a rate hiking cycle. Investors are increasingly us...

The magnitude of the war’s impact on growth and inflation will be determined by how much and for how long energy prices rise. The war, economic sanctions and the associated rise in energy costs are likely to exacerbate global shipping impediments, too, which had begun to recove...

Pick any barometer of costs these days, and the story is the same: Prices are up - and in a dramatic fashion. The first thing that jumps out is the dismal performance of most asset classes during periods of low growth and high inflation - otherwise known as stagflation. A solid fo...