CHGX News and Press, Change Finance U.S. Large Cap Fossil Fuel Free From 12/09/20

Below is a graph of 4 ways of measuring the downturn in the labor market due to the pandemic. Note that the two jobs measures from the two component surveys track similarly. They are currently down -5.7% and -6.5%, respectively, from their February peaks. If there is not a double-...

As COVID-19 vaccines start to roll out in the West, the prospect of economic recovery strengthens. Many risks continue to lurk, of course, but for the first time since the pandemic started, there are tangible signs of light at the end of the tunnel. The pandemic seems likely to ge...

In the near term, we continue to expect a seasonal upsurge in COVID-19 cases to impact consumer behavior. Where hospitals are nearing capacity, an unwelcome return to local and regional lockdowns may still be necessary. Increased lockdowns will likely perpetuate the goods versus servi...

With the world in the early post-recession recovery phase of the business cycle, our medium-term outlook for economies and corporate earnings is positive. We believe that 2021 will feature an extended period of low-inflation, low-interest rate growth that favors equities over bonds. T...

Medical experts have warned about a second COVID-19 wave for some time, but it is already proving to be worse than many expected. The IHS Markit Eurozone Composite PMI clocked in at 45.3, which is down significantly from October's reading of 50.0. Not surprisingly, it was services tha...

We are pro-risk for reasons beyond an expected vaccine-led upswing. We see low nominal rates - even in the face of rising inflation - helping risk assets. Global stocks hit record highs amid positive vaccine news and hopes for a U.S. fiscal package, even as near-term challenges weighe...

While the idea of a "roaring ‘20s market" is undoubtedly optimistic, it is also a dangerous concept for investors to buy into. The critical distinction between the technology of the '20s and today is stark. When technology increases productivity and output while simultaneously ...

The payroll report for November 2020, like those of the previous four months, have only further corroborated and confirmed the untimely death of the recovery. Since actual recovery can take only a "V" shape, the end of the "V" necessarily means the end of recovery. In the twisted worl...

The coronavirus is likely to accelerate throughout the holidays, with activity restrictions likely to tamp down growth - even without another round of broad national lockdowns. At the very least, slow growth and low inflation are likely for the next several months. The Fed will keep m...

There is no longer any correlation between bank reserves and the economy-wide money supply. In the US, the government-Fed combination can increase the money supply to almost any extent independently of the private banks. That is, monetary inflation does not rely on the expansion of cr...