COMT News and Press, iShares Commodities Select Strategy ETF From 04/12/22

Fund managers are bracing for a further decline in stocks as "fear of a fast and furious Fed" has global growth optimism to an all-time low, according to the latest BofA survey out Tuesday. The April survey of 329 panelists with $929B in assets under management saw global growth optimism fall...

The Fed has decided to go from super-easy money to quickly tightening monetary policy, which is causing a spike in Treasury yields that looks dangerous to me. Treasury yields have nearly doubled since the Omicron panic in late November, touching 2.73% on Friday. They are flirting with...

The broader equity categories turned in negative results in Q1. U.S. large-cap stocks, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, held up the best at a decline of 4.6%. Bonds performed worse than many of the equity categories, despite typically being viewed as a safe haven investment. In t...

Does the yield curve inversion cause a recession or does it just provide a signal? Is the inversion only about expected future monetary policy? Do other factors also influence the shape of the curve, and if so, can we disentangle the various factors? There is a lot that we don’...

For most asset-classes and investors, the first quarter of 2022 didn't provide much of a reason to dance. For us, however, it was quite different. Many investors/experts point out that both recession and market peak occur (if at all) within 16-20 months from inversion. We, however, be...

We see the West’s drive for energy security slowing growth, increasing inflation and stoking demand for non-Russian fossil fuels to alleviate consumer pain. Data last week showed U.S. inflation at 40-year highs and a robust labor market. We expect the Fed to deliver on this yea...

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index ticked slightly higher in March to an annualized 5.8% pace, fractionally above last month’s estimate. Using short-term momentum and medium-term mean-reversion market factors (defined below) to adjust the forecast trims GMI&#...

We see specific themes in commodities that could benefit from the transition to a low carbon economy. On average, since 1997, commodities have historically outperformed the S&P 500 in the first 12 months after the beginning of a rate hiking cycle. Investors are increasingly us...

The magnitude of the war’s impact on growth and inflation will be determined by how much and for how long energy prices rise. The war, economic sanctions and the associated rise in energy costs are likely to exacerbate global shipping impediments, too, which had begun to recove...

Pick any barometer of costs these days, and the story is the same: Prices are up - and in a dramatic fashion. The first thing that jumps out is the dismal performance of most asset classes during periods of low growth and high inflation - otherwise known as stagflation. A solid fo...