DFVL News and Press, Barclays Bank PLC ZC SP ETN REDEEM 12/07/2021 USD 50 - Ser A From 05/29/19

By Jeffrey Kleintop Over the past 30 years, stock markets around the world have rallied after the Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked interest rates for the last time in the economic cycle. The rallies have varied in length and strength, but eventually break down as the late cycle environment enco...

Macro News European Elections: For the first time since the inception of the European Parliament, the two centre parties - the European People Party ((EPP)) and Socialists and Democrats (S&D) - have lost their combined majority on the back of a strengthening nationalist, liberal and gr...

As many long-term followers of my economic research are well aware, I have been a bull on Treasury bonds since 2017, citing slower economic growth and weaker inflation. Interest Rates Will Always Follow Nominal GDP Growth Trends: Source: BEA, FRED, BLS, EPB Macro Research I started...

The U.S. economy now appears to be heading into Quad 4 market scare. In our model, Quad 4 is an environment of U.S growth slowing, inflation slowing . That spells trouble ahead for the market. And so the question becomes, how will the Federal Reserve react? And how fast? In this ...

Bond yields have started to break down, and if today's chart is anything to go by, it's entirely possible we see a further push lower in yields. The May round of flash PMIs brought mostly disappointment, with all the majors undershooting expectations, and falling on the month. Europe fell a ...

There are trillions of dollars of bonds in the world with negative yields - a fact which future historians will find baffling. Until now those negative yields have been limited to the safest types of bonds issued by governments and major corporations. But this week a new category of negative...

Hate spreads faster than love and fear sells, which helps explain why April's "nascent reflation" narrative is seemingly dead and buried. Thanks in no small part to trade concerns, this week saw the return of the late-March "growth scare" story, as told by bonds, whose "voice" is always pret...

The Treasury market's outlook has turned grim, based on the inverted yield curve of late. Another dimension of the cautious outlook is yesterday's sharp drop in the implied inflation outlook, based on yield spreads for nominal less inflation-indexed Treasury rates. Let's start with the yield...

Right now, the Federal Reserve seems to be doing very well. Because the Federal Reserve seems to be dong very well and seems to be controlling the situation, the value of the US dollar has strengthened this year and shows many signs of moving even higher. The value of the US dollar is an i...

Pushing interest rates below zero is both an act of desperation and something that in theory should have a huge, immediate impact of the behavior of borrowers and savers. The fact that negative rates have become the new normal in big parts of the world but haven't caused the expected behavior ...