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Posted by Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist on Mar 18, 2019, in Market & Economic Weekly Market Compass: Instead of attacking central banks, some politicians want to use them as a policy tool The United States has always had a difficult, complicated relation...

In its death note to narrow banks (link to Federal Register where you can post comments; previous post ), the Fed claimed charmingly that retail deposit rates are fully competitive, so we don't need a narrow bank option to help spread the interest on reserves to deposit rates. In the Fed'...

The panic attack that ravaged markets in the fourth quarter of last year, causing a 20% loss in the S&P 500 index, has almost completely reversed. Overseas equity markets have recovered as well; credit spreads are back to normal levels, the dollar is relatively stable, and commodity pric...

Geoffrey H. Moore was famously called "the father of leading indicators" for his composite index approach to forecasting business cycles. In this research note, I want to walk through an example of a leading indicator that Moore described for the employment market in a 1983 working pa...

In my forty-four years on Wall Street, I have learned a few lessons. One of the most important ones is that the avoidance of "Risk," of places that are dangerous to go, allows you to greatly increase the safety, and return, of your portfolios. "Staying out of trouble" is a key component to any...

A few weeks ago, I wrote an article entitled “Bonds Setting Up To Skyrocket,” and boy did I get a lot of pushback in the comments section. And, when I see so many who are still very bearish of bonds, it tells me that I am likely on the right track with my expectations for higher ...

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Life is full of facts we don't know or have simply forgotten. In a comment, a writer recently encouraged the curious to search "hyperinflation during the Weimar Republic." Some of what I discovered was surprising. Germany had come out of the first World War with most of its industrial power in...

The Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee meets on Wednesday and the feeling is that there will be no change in the central bank’s policy rate of interest. Fed watchers, however, will be looking for changes in the “feel and tone” of what Federal Reserve officials wr...

Last week, Jeff Desjardins of Visual Capitalist wrote in a post: "While it's true that putting your money on the line is never easy the historical record of the stock market is virtually irrefutable: U.S. markets have consistently performed over long holding periods, even going back to the ...