DLBS News and Press, Barclays Bank PLC ZC SP ETN REDEEM 13/08/2020 USD 50 - Ser A 06740L444 From 07/06/19

Rates have continued to dip. Forward markets have already moved much of the way back toward zero. This has been somewhat surprising to me. I expected the Fed to maintain the fed funds rate at a plateau level, as they did in the last two cyclical reversals. But they are almost certain to start ...

With the trade war in full swing and the USA attacking many of its trading partners over perceived unfairness in trade relationships, what would happen if Brazil dumped its considerable holding of Treasuries into the secondary market or chose not to buy any more Treasuries and let the remainde...

The rate of inflation in the economy has receded into the shadows. Central bank policy makers have been experiencing a time where their efforts to jumpstart the economy through “goosing up” actual inflation rates has been falling far short of their targets. Officials at the F...

If the Fed eases, as expected at its July 31 meeting, what will the market response be? Can history offer any insight? This comparison remains an informative way to think through possible outcomes: Executive Summary 1998 remains the best analogue to understanding the Fed actions today an...

Five years ago , I suggested that the new normal was 3% NGDP growth, which included 1.2% RGDP growth and 1.8% rise in the GDP deflator. A few years later, I realized my growth forecast was a bit too low, and raised it to 1.5%. Now, the San Francisco Fed has come out with a new article sugge...

By Kathy Lien At a Glance Gold and oil often rise; earnings tend to surprise more when the dollar falls. In a booming economy, a declining dollar can be a positive contributor to growth. The U.S. dollar is the most important currency in the world, and when it falls, everyone ...

By Frank Shostak A softer increase in the personal consumption price index ((PCEPI)) adjusted for food and energy has likely prompted Fed policymakers to hint about a cut in the policy interest rate in the months ahead. The yearly growth of the PCEPI adjusted for food and energy, or the co...

By Tobias Adrian, Financial Counsellor and Director of IMF's Monetary and Capital Markets Department; Rohit Goel, Financial Sector Expert in IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department; Fabio M. Natalucci, a Deputy Director of Monetary and Capital Markets Department The slope of t...

Greg Mankiw posted a clever graph a month ago, which he titled " The Phillips Curve is Alive and Well." No, Greg, the Phillips curve is still as dead as Generalissimo Franco. The lines, in case you can't see them are the employment-population ratio 25-54, and the average hourly earnings o...

Overview: Interest rates are lurching lower. The US 10-year yield is at new two-year lows, but the driver is European bonds where peripheral yields are 6-7 bp lower, though Italy's benchmark is off 12 bp, while core yields are down 2-3 bp to new record lows. The German benchmark is almost m...