DTUS News and Press, Barclays Bank PLC ZC SP REDEEM 13/08/2020 USD 50 - Ser A 06740L519 From 03/28/19

Last year, I wrote an article entitled "The Upcoming Bond Bull Market," which, at the time, was pushing against the mainstream consensus which was predicting rates could only go higher. I am updating that article with the latest data points as the overall thesis of "why" we have remained bu...

It is a convoluted world. Negative yielding bonds have climbed since September and now compose about 19% of the world's bond markets. Whoever, in their right minds, thought that a lender would pay the borrower? We now have over $10.07 trillion, up from $5.7 trillion in early 2018, of negativel...

On February 7, the 3-month LIBOR rate (US$) fell sharply. Traders were, as various media outlets reported, stunned. All sorts of excuses were issued, the goal of them cumulatively to deny your lying eyes. Falling LIBOR couldn't have been the market, especially eurodollar futures, anticipating ...

On Friday, markets were spooked when the yield on the US 3-month treasury bill rose to 2.44% while the 10-year treasury yield moved below it to 2.38%. Since investors normally require higher yields for loaning money over longer terms than shorter, this 'inverted' yield spread signals a belief ...

Getting long U.S. Treasury bonds has been a lucrative, contrarian move for Hedgeye subscribers for many months now. And while Hedgeye has been bullish on bonds since the end of September, the latest CFTC non-commercial futures and options contract data shows that Wall Street is—beli...

By Kevin Flanagan Last week, the big news was that the U.S. Treasury (UST) 3-month/10-year yield curve became inverted for the first time since 2007. It is certainly a noteworthy development in bond-land. As of this writing, the closely watched UST 2-year/10-year spread is still on the pos...

Is a recession in the U.S. around the bend? Few economists are predicting one. On the other hand, longer-term Treasury bond yields continue to slide below shorter-term maturities. Bond investors are gobbling up long-term government debt because they believe that the economy will slow dramat...

The $9.9B iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF ( TLT +0.6% ) is heading for its worst month of outflows on record as investors pile into shorter-duration ETFS amid a continuing downward slope in benchmark yields. More news on: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, iShares 1-3 Year Treasury B...

Last week stocks shuddered as ten year yields dipped below treasury bills, reminding investors that yield curve inversions eerily precede recessions. A St. Louis Fed model using the yield curve gives a 30% probability of a recession within a year, up from 24% in December. Nonetheless, the S&...

Credit curves Business cycles are driven by credit expansion then credit contraction. Therefore it makes sense to be able to assess how credit spreads are able to indicate an impending recession. Increase in financing costs is what typically leads the virtuous cycle of credit to tip over int...