DTYS News and Press, Barclays Bank PLC ZC SP REDEEM 13/08/2020 USD 50 - Ser A 06740L451 From 06/17/19

Investment thesis The basic thesis is that it takes bulls to make a bull market, and the long bond ( TLT ) now has both the technical and fundamental backdrop to complete the bull market move it has made since the bottom of the bond bear market last October. I'll begin with some technical po...

By Erik Knutzen Late-cycle data points are noisy and inconclusive, and the stories we tell about them don't always add up. I am not sure when we first used the term "late-cycle" in these CIO Weekly Perspectives , but I do know that its first appearance in a headline was when Joe Amato w...

Originally published June 14, 2019 My couch, jeans, car, PC, sheets, and phone weigh in on globalization and the internet. Retail sales, not including sales at restaurants and bars, in May rose 3.1% from a year earlier, according to the Commerce Department this morning. That's not ex...

It’s difficult to get past the obvious at the moment. Markets have made their bet on further monetary easing, and they’re now waiting for central banks to deliver. Policymakers have been showering markets with promises to “act if needed,” and assurances from those s...

We're Worried Because Any change in interest rates, in either direction, is the major macroeconomic factor we're worried about as investors. It's the great unknown in the current economy, which way are central banks going to jump? As long as we don't see inflation coming then we can assume t...

By Darren Williams As global growth prospects have weakened, the world of central banking has been turned upside-down. But while the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has already hinted at a change of course, the European Central Bank ((ECB)) is still struggling to adapt to the new reality. It's ...

"The perfect storm" has become a cliché, but the current setup for a 2019 recession just became so text-book perfect in alignment of the three most critical recessionary forces that I have to use it. Let me start by noting that a stock market that rallies because the news is bad - as ha...

If you are a dreamer come in If you are a dreamer a wisher a liar A hoper a pray-er a magic-bean-buyer If you're a pretender com sit by my fire For we have some flax golden tales to spin Come in! Come in! - Shel Silverstein Money created from nothing. The Alchemist's dream....

We expect the Fed to make a game-changing announcement within months that their long-held belief that low inflation is transitory has been wrong. Inflation has been running well beneath the Fed's 2% target for well over 5 years now despite rising employment, a near record low level of unemploy...

The bond market is putting a lot of pressure on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to start rate cuts in July and to signal such in the upcoming June 19th FOMC meeting. A meeting date two days prior to traders' often volatile June quadruple witch. To think that positions are not being taken for this "...