EDV News and Press, Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury From 04/06/24

2024-04-06 02:30:00 ET Summary We think the Fed peaked in July 2023. Technically, we won’t know for sure until they cut. But, had a Martian alien landed on Earth and simply eyeballed the current movement of the 10yr yield, they’d likely conclude that the Fed had not ...

2024-04-06 01:35:00 ET Summary As diligently as everyone is looking for signs of a consumer slowdown, the numbers keep telling us that household spending continues apace. The labor market is not showing signs of slowing. Friday’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics s...

2024-04-05 09:05:00 ET Summary Three mega-forces seem set to dominate the investment landscape for the next decade or longer, with major implications for the macro regime and portfolio design. Each of these far-reaching forces - climate change, demographics and deglobalization - i...

2024-04-05 08:25:00 ET Summary By January 2025, the Federal Reserve  is likely to be in an easing cycle, which may benefit the market regardless of who wins the election. A recent quote from Fed Chair Jerome Powell about the Fed, inflation, and confidence was music to my ears...

2024-04-05 07:05:00 ET Summary Every firm is expecting rate cuts anticipating a recession but there is no recession in sight. Employment has been rising with some believing the numbers are manipulated because they believed the PMI was literally screaming recession. Expectation...

2024-04-04 14:20:00 ET Summary The broadest measure of economic activity, growth in real GDP, slowed in the fourth quarter. The U-3 unemployment rate has edged higher from last April (3.4 percent) to February (3.9 percent). In a no-landing scenario, the unemployment rate would...

2024-04-04 08:45:00 ET Summary The fundamental outlook for bonds remains questionable at best. The leading indicators of growth and inflation for 2024 suggest both dynamics could put upside pressure on yields. Sentiment toward bonds remains bullish as the consensus is for yiel...

2024-04-04 03:25:00 ET Summary Inflation pressures remain quite subdued; disinflation is still in place. The market continues to harbor a long-ingrained reflex that says that in order for inflation to decline, the economy needs to weaken. Low and declining inflation and modera...

2024-04-03 09:20:00 ET Summary Markets are still pricing in moderate odds that easing will start at the end of the second quarter, but the incoming data is providing more support for again pushing the date for a dovish policy pivot further down the road. The caveat is that the 2-y...

2024-04-03 08:30:00 ET Summary Market swings punctuated the first quarter as “central bank speak” proliferated and caused confusion. I put first quarter global markets into perspective and highlight some “little victories” that may have been easy to ove...