EFIV News and Press, SPDR S&P 500 ESG From 10/17/22

Summary The S&P 500 dropped by a whopping 20% from its mid-August top two months ago. However, now that stock prices are much lower and the November Fed move is priced in, stocks may have another significant countertrend rally in the coming weeks. Moreover, big banks are c...

Summary If what you care most about is the long-term real spending power of your wealth, then that should be your benchmark for assessing the risk of different investments. It has long been acknowledged that the volatility of real corporate earnings is much lower than the volatili...

Summary Confirming New Cycle Dynamics, the Truss government’s “mini budget” has unleashed absolute mayhem. The S&P 500 dropped 1.6% (down 24.8% y-t-d), while the Dow recovered 1.2% (down 18.4%). Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rates surged 26 bps to...

Summary Janet Yellen raised the specter of buying Treasuries this past week, without it being QE. The comments seemed to be born of some illiquidity issues within the Treasury market. 2022 is a midterm election year. It’s been grim YTD with the S&P 500 down -23.83% whil...

Summary We have been on a market roller-coaster. Why the violent ups and downs? We are still in negative gamma. The options market is controlling the stock market. There is a lack of liquidity in the market, and the positions in the options market are now very short-term. Ther...

Summary The S&P 500 earnings yield is now 6.5%, a 2022 high, surpassing the peak of 6.42% the week of June 17th, 2022, and one of the highest earnings yields seen since January ’19. 2022 has been all about “P/E compression” as the S&P 500 P/E started a...

Summary Market participants were shocked at the market action on Thursday. The underlying reason that many were shocked is due to their lack of understanding of market dynamics. If Thursday's action does not make you question your current market perspective, then nothing likel...

Summary Stocks squeezed higher following a massive opening drop following the CPI report. However, that all reversed on Friday with the absence of the mechanical bid. Bonds have priced in a nearly 5% Fed Funds rate. It was another rough week for the stock market, wit...

Summary We believe investors can no longer afford to ignore the risks of a significant global economic downturn as the Fed's hands are tied in its bid to tame record inflation. Therefore, the market's likely positioning of a mild-to-moderate recession is looking increasingly tenuo...

Summary After a bumpy year, 2023 could prove to be even more challenging for global goods trade with consumer demand faltering, oversupply returning, and the energy and subsequent inflation crisis persisting. So far this year, global merchandise trade has held up extremely well gi...