EFIV News and Press, SPDR S&P 500 ESG From 01/29/23

Summary The Federal Reserve appears to be losing control of the market. Financial conditions have eased dramatically since the December FOMC meeting. The Fed needs to push back against the market before it is too late. It appears that the Federal Reserve is losing control ...

Summary We expect a shift in the messaging towards monetary policy at the February 2nd Fed Meeting which can work as a catalyst for risk assets. The latest December PCE data showed inflation ended 2022 well below the Fed's forecast from the last FOMC. We highlight ongoing themes dur...

Summary The one truism which holds is that share prices and investor behavior do repeat even though the context is unique. The one element we can count on is that high pessimism is reflected in stock prices and other indicators with which investors can use to gauge market lows. One ...

Summary While many have their eyes fixated on a “Magical Trendline”, the rest of world has broken above. Canada signalled a PAUSE at its current rate while the Bank assesses the full impact (lagged effect) of its hikes. AAII Sentiment Survey result, Bullish Percent tic...

Summary While the US economy remains in growth territory this year, the odds are rising that it will stumble into a recession during 2023. 2022 was a down year for most asset classes, with the FOMC raising the Fed funds rate by over 400 bps while battling inflation. We expect the cr...

Summary It goes without saying that the early stage of every large rally contains a break above resistance and the early stage of every large decline contains a break below support. During the course of the 2000-2002 bear market, the SPX broke above a downward trend line that is not unl...

Summary Conventional wisdom these days is that in order for the Fed to bring inflation down, they are going to have to kneecap the economy. Looking back at last year as a whole, real GDP shrank at a 1.1% annualized rate in the first half of the year, and grew at a 3.1% annualized rate i...

Summary Inflation will continue as the hot story of 2023, and it may have a surprise in store very soon. The Fed appears to be blind to serious problems in the labor market. As a result, its crushing down of the economy could counterintuitively make inflation worse by the end of the...

Summary As we look to 2023, we don’t believe a recession is inevitable as many do; a soft landing is within the realm of reason, or at the very least, a no landing, as was the case in 2022. We’ve long held to a proprietary investment approach which postulates that three cy...

Summary The S&P 500 is very expensive on a PE multiple basis. The index is also very expensive relative to the 10-year rate. This is for earnings growth that is deteriorating. The next leg of the bear market could be here, as investors begin to turn their attention awa...