EFIV News and Press, SPDR S&P 500 ESG From 02/06/23

Summary The market action is still confounding most analysts and investors. You may simply be looking at the market through the wrong prism. 4105SPX is the level you need to watch early in the week. When the market was bottoming on October 13 of 2022 at 3500SPX, the member...

Summary The February 2nd, 2023 rally in the corporate high yield asset class was the strongest day of spread narrowing since November ’20. Spread tightening over longer periods of time is a positive underlying condition for both the US stock market and bond markets, as well as th...

Summary Last week gave the bulls everything they could have reasonably wanted. An obliging FOMC, strong data, and positive technicals, all contributed to the rally to 4195. The only 'problem' is that with everything going right, something can easily go wrong. Bears will look for a s...

Summary Market movements this year indicate that many investors don't believe that the Federal Reserve will really live up to its picture of continued increases in its policy rate. Mr. Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman, does not seem to have the confidence of the financial markets and on...

Summary We’re in the midst of the fourth quarter earnings season and already we’re seeing a cautionary setup for 2023 as corporations find ways to cut back. In the latter half of 2022 the number of companies announcing dividend decreases began to rise temporarily, before r...

Summary Inflation was arguably one of the biggest challenges faced in 2022. Although it doesn’t look to be going away in the early part of 2023, it does seem likely to slow as the year goes on. The December 2022 meetings by three of the most major central banks concluded a year o...

Summary Three of the major investment themes of 2022 were: inflation and central bank responses; commodity and energy price spikes; and the China COVID lockdown. We discuss how each of these will likely play out in 2023. Our general market view for the year ahead is relatively sanguine,...

Summary On Wednesday we got a de-clawed hawk in Chairman Powell and he treaded carefully. For the first time, Powell acknowledged we are in a dis-inflationary environment and goods inflation is coming down fast. In my view, the most important quote of the press conference was, ...

Summary The first employment report of 2023 certainly surprised everybody. Friday morning’s report was the tenth straight better-than-expected report, which is a record and easily surpasses the prior peaks in September 2020 and March 2015. The US economy has added 4.967 milli...

Summary The jobs data surprised to the upside. The ISM data surprised to the upside. The stock market appears to be grossly mispriced relative to rates. The most stunning part of the FOMC press conference on Wednesday wasn't at the beginning or the middle. It came at the e...