EUM News and Press, ProShares Short MSCI Emerging Markets From 02/26/23

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Summary Given the forecastable nature of the business cycle, understanding what markets are pricing in from a business cycle perspective is an integral tool to one’s asset allocation decisions. As it stands, stocks as a whole have done a solid job pricing in the growth slowdown. ...

Summary Uncertainty abounds in many key global macroeconomic drivers. However, some of this uncertainty, global growth and geopolitics in particular, may provide a strong tailwind for EM debt. All key global macroeconomic drivers are maximally uncertain – rates, FX, duration, IG ...

Summary Markets are waking up to our expectation of more central bank rate hikes as inflation proves sticky. We go overweight U.S. short-term bonds for income. U.S. two-year Treasury yields jumped near 15-year highs - sparking an equity retreat - as Federal Reserve rate cuts later in th...

Summary Are markets re-rating EM here? Has the "sudden stop" of capital flowing into emerging markets started? A steadfast tightening Federal Reserve will play into and heighten these EM risks through various channels. The outlook for the US economy remains generally-positive as sho...

Summary Stocks have posted solid gains since they started to recover from last year’s painful crash. Policy trends that drive currency moves and macroeconomic growth differ around the world. Disciplined stock selection can help investors achieve effective global diversificati...

Summary In this post, I will focus on trend lines in profitability at companies in 2022, with the intent of addressing multiple questions. While absolute profits are a useful measure of profitability, you have to scale profits to a common scaling variable, to compare companies of differ...

Summary China’s economic reopening is proceeding swiftly, despite the spike in COVID-19 cases in early January. January witnessed a dramatic shift in the performance of growth stocks, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Growth Index posting double-digit returns. Consensus expectat...

Summary In 2021 and 2022, emerging-market (EM) stocks underperformed developed market equities. Despite EM’s subsequent outperformance of 12.5% since then (October 31, 2022, through January 31, 2023) our quant scores remain strongly positive for EM stocks. Meanwhile, in funda...

Summary Despite softer economic conditions globally, emerging markets (EM) credit fundamentals remain supportive—and while we see some pockets of weakness, especially among energy- and food-importing countries, overall we believe EM debt is well positioned to withstand a period of we...