EWMC News and Press, Invesco S&P MidCap 400 Equal Weight From 10/13/22

Summary We summarize key data and provide in-depth analysis of the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). All Items and Core CPI inflation both grew at significantly higher rates than expected. This month’s CPI i...

Summary The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 8.20%, down from 8.26% the previous month. Investing.com was looking for a 0.4% MoM change in seasonally adjusted Headline CPI and a 0.5% in Core CPI. In the wake of the Great Recession, two percent has...

Summary CPI came in hot, again. The market - so far - anticipates a still more hawkish Fed. We think a 75bps rate rise remains the likely outcome. And we think it's becoming obvious - surely even to the Fed itself - that rate rises and inflation don't have the linkage that...

Summary Unprecedented losses to equity and bond markets are resulting in exceptional volatility and stress to financial markets. Foreign central banks are beginning to intervene in markets to maintain stability including the Bank of England and Bank of Japan. The Fed has exten...

Summary Financial markets are highly liquid and far from breaking down. Since a strong economy is going to be tough to come by these days, high real rates confirm that money is very tight. The interest cost of our federal debt is less than 3% of GDP, and that's relatively low ...

Summary Will these concerns about the UK bond market cause central banks to consider a rate-hike pivot? Why the Fed will likely stay the course, even if 'material risks' emerge. What happens if governments can't service their debts? The Bank of England has in...

Summary According to the establishment survey of employment, released last week by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, total employment increased month-over-month by 263,000 jobs. The employment data is possibly the only data that looks good right now, and that's not much comfort, sin...

Summary Are October rallies just bear traps in disguise? When will we see a turn in inflation? How to navigate bear markets. September was a brutal month for equities. Could markets strengthen this fall or are rallies just bear traps in disguise? Kim Parlee t...

Summary The outlook for the market and the economy that we laid out in our last quarterly note remains unchanged. A dancing bear is still a bear, and we think lowering portfolio beta exposure below benchmark is key to navigating this recessionary bear market successfully. We t...

Summary AIER’s Leading Indicators Index fell to a new cycle low of 25 in September from 29 in August. The latest result is the fourth consecutive month below the neutral 50 threshold and, excluding the lockdown recession in 2020, matches the lowest level since the recovery ...