EWMC News and Press, Invesco S&P MidCap 400 Equal Weight From 10/20/22

Summary The S&P 500 remains supported along its June lows, as buyers appeared to stanch further selling. However, the price action has not been resolved. We anticipate that the market has already priced in a mild-to-moderate recession. But, we explain why the Fed may not be fi...

Summary According to the most recent figures, US after-tax corporate profitability reached its highest share of GDP in nearly 70 years. According to a recent paper, falling borrowing costs and tax expenses have resulted in as much as one third of the increase in aggregate US corpo...

Summary As I've argued in recent posts, there's plenty of evidence to suggest the Fed has already tightened by enough to bring inflation down. The dollar is super-strong, real yields have risen sharply, the yield curve is inverted, commodity prices are plunging, and the housing ma...

Summary The US National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), designed to gauge market conditions, fell to 38 in October from 46 in September, now 50% lower than it was six months ago (below 50 is considered negative), and the largest year over ye...

Summary Persistent inflation spurred the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates aggressively in the third quarter, with 0.75% hikes in both July and September. Earnings estimates for equities had continued to climb during the early part of the year and only started to moderate...

Summary October flash PMI data will provide much needed insights into the risk of some of the world's major economies falling into recession. Falling or near-stalled output was seen across the four largest developed economies - the 'G4'. Only Japan recorded expansion, and even her...

Summary How far will policy rates need to go to tame inflation and is a recession imminent? Until central banks see a significant decline in wage growth, they’re likely to keep conditions tighter for longer. There’s evidence that conditions may continue to suppor...

Summary Active central banks may create attractive opportunities for discretionary macro managers who can take advantage of higher volatility, higher rates and dynamic policy changes. The Russia-Ukraine conflict remains a large overhang across almost the entire commodity complex. ...

Summary Chief Investment Officer Jon Maier and Head of Thematic Solutions Scott Helfstein offer their perspectives on the current investing landscape in what has been an extremely difficult year for investors. Signs suggest that producer prices have started to slow, and there are ...

Summary Global GDP growth is still expected to be positive in 2022 (excluding Russia) but is expected to fall fairly dramatically in 2023. The U.S. Q3 2022 earnings season has just begun, and the outlook is for lower but still positive revenue and earnings growth. Inflation wi...