EWMC News and Press, Invesco S&P MidCap 400 Equal Weight From 11/03/22

Summary Claims have fallen in eight of the last 12 weeks, but the changes over the last five weeks have been small. Continued elevated rates of price increases, an aggressive Fed tightening cycle, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain risks to the economic outloo...

Summary Fed Chair Jerome Powell remained hawkish but left some hope for the equity bulls. Notably, the Fed could be inching closer to its terminal rate expectations by early 2023. Therefore, this week's selloff is appropriate to position the market appropriately for increased rece...

Summary The Federal Reserve has raised the Federal Funds Rate by 75 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4%. Chairman Powell says they have the "resolve" to stay the course until the job is done. Terminal rate targets have now moved higher while expectations for the duration of...

Summary Monetary inflation is the driver of the economic boom-bust cycle, with booms being set in motion by rapid monetary inflation and busts getting underway after the rate of new money creation drops below a critical level and/or it becomes impossible to complete projects due to re...

Summary Despite all the worries over the possibility of a recession in the quarters ahead, the stock market seems to have priced in a “soft landing” for the economy. The cyclicals-to-defensives ratio has yet to really react even to the slowdown in the economy we have...

Summary Thus far, 70% of companies beat on top line while 59% beat earnings expectations. The combination of rising interest rates, strong US dollar, and high inflation have weighed on analyst sentiment going into Q3. Corporate margin expectations are still relatively high and...

Summary For the first time in years, the “real” forward rates depicted are all positive. When the real forward rate is a positive number, it implies that the monetary policy in the medium term is restrictive. Japan has now joined the club of restrictive monetary ...

Summary The U.S. Federal Reserve delivered another supersized 75-basis-point (bps) rate hike at today’s meeting, bringing the federal funds rate to a target range of 3.75%-4.0%. Powell indicated that the Fed would consider slowing down the pace of rate hikes at its next mee...

Summary Even though the market fell to new lows for the year less than three weeks ago, October turned out to be the second-strongest month for US stocks since November 2020. All S&P 500 sectors were positive last month, but energy outpaced the rest of the market by a wide mar...

Summary The only policy actions that could deter a recession would worsen inflation, thus setting the stage for an even worse downturn sometime in the future. One indicator that covers 54 countries shows that almost all are tightening monetary policy. A good reason to expect a...